Udinese vs Cagliari prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects Cagliari 1.56 - Udinese 1.29. Cagliari is favored with a 44.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 2.9..
Cagliari
1.56
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Udinese
1.29
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
CagliariDrawUdinese
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Udinese
0.51.32.1
Cagliari
0.81.62.3
Projected
Cagliari 1.56 — Udinese 1.29
Actual
Cagliari 0 — Udinese 2
Expected Goals (xG)
Cagliari0.86
Udinese0.60
22.5Shots14.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
94.6%
Over 1.5
78.9%
Over 2.5
54.7%
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 2.5
45.3%
BTTS
61.4%
Match Context
SERMedium
Cagliari
2.75
Draw
2.23
Udinese
4.19
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Cagliari 44.7%
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Total
2.9
+130.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →