Valencia vs Real Sociedad prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Real Sociedad 1.74 - Valencia 1.68. Real Sociedad is favored with a 40.7% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Real Sociedad
1.74
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
Valencia
1.68
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Real SociedadDrawValencia
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 71.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Valencia
0.91.72.5
Real Sociedad
1.01.72.5
Projected
Real Sociedad 1.74 — Valencia 1.68
Actual
Real Sociedad 3 — Valencia 4
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Sociedad1.70
Valencia1.68
19.6Shots18.1
7.0On Target6.7
6.0Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
86.4%
Over 2.5
54.1%
Over 3.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
45.9%
BTTS
52.1%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
6.1%
Match Context
LALMedium
Real Sociedad
2.46
Draw
3.30
Valencia
3.14
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Real Sociedad 40.7%
--
Total
3.4
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →