FINAL: Sevilla 0 — Valencia 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Sevilla 1.62 - Valencia 1.22 (Valencia at 57.8% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.8..
Sevilla
1.62
Projected Goals
VS
2.8 total
Valencia
1.22
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SevillaDrawValencia
Valencia W5Sevilla
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Valencia
0.41.22.0
Sevilla
0.81.62.4
Projected
Sevilla 1.62 — Valencia 1.22
Actual
Sevilla 0 — Valencia 2
Pick Results
OVER 2.25totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Sevilla1.59
Valencia1.22
15.9Shots13.1
6.0On Target4.8
5.5Corners5.1
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.1%
Over 1.5
78.6%
Over 2.5
50.0%
Over 3.5
18.1%
Under 2.5
50.0%
BTTS
32.9%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.6%
1-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
2-0
8.0%
0-0
7.2%
Match Context
LALMedium
Sevilla
6.38
Draw
3.34
Valencia
1.66
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Valencia 57.8%
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Total
2.8
+14.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →