FINAL: Augsburg 2 — VfB Stuttgart 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Augsburg 1.39 - VfB Stuttgart 1.66 (VfB Stuttgart at 68.0% win probability). Expected total goals: 3.0..
Augsburg
1.39
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
VfB Stuttgart
1.66
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
AugsburgDrawVfB Stuttgart
VfB StuttgartAugsburg L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
VfB Stuttgart
0.91.72.4
Augsburg
0.61.42.2
Projected
Augsburg 1.39 — VfB Stuttgart 1.66
Actual
Augsburg 2 — VfB Stuttgart 5
Pick Results
UNDER 3.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Augsburg1.34
VfB Stuttgart1.65
14.3Shots16.4
5.2On Target6.2
5.3Corners5.7
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
96.1%
Over 1.5
81.1%
Over 2.5
49.1%
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 2.5
50.9%
BTTS
53.2%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.9%
Match Context
BUNMedium
Augsburg
8.01
Draw
4.68
VfB Stuttgart
1.39
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
VfB Stuttgart 68.0%
--
Total
3.0
+25.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →