VfL Wolfsburg vs SC Freiburg prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects SC Freiburg 1.58 - VfL Wolfsburg 1.44. VfL Wolfsburg is favored with a 45.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.0..
SC Freiburg
1.58
Projected Goals
VS
3.0 total
VfL Wolfsburg
1.44
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
SC FreiburgDrawVfL Wolfsburg
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
VfL Wolfsburg
0.71.42.2
SC Freiburg
0.81.62.4
Projected
SC Freiburg 1.58 — VfL Wolfsburg 1.44
Actual
SC Freiburg 1 — VfL Wolfsburg 1
Expected Goals (xG)
SC Freiburg1.59
VfL Wolfsburg1.42
16.4Shots15.5
6.1On Target5.7
5.5Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.9%
Over 1.5
80.7%
Over 2.5
52.4%
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 2.5
47.6%
BTTS
52.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
10.2%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.7%
Match Context
BUNCritical
SC Freiburg
2.19
Draw
3.55
VfL Wolfsburg
3.45
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
VfL Wolfsburg 45.6%
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Total
3.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →