FINAL: Athletic Bilbao 1 — Villarreal 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected Athletic Bilbao 1.27 - Villarreal 1.58 (Villarreal at 68.4% win probability). Expected total goals: 2.9..
Athletic Bilbao
1.27
Projected Goals
VS
2.9 total
Villarreal
1.58
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Athletic BilbaoDrawVillarreal
Villarreal W5Athletic Bilbao
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 98.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Villarreal
0.81.62.4
Athletic Bilbao
0.51.32.0
Projected
Athletic Bilbao 1.27 — Villarreal 1.58
Actual
Athletic Bilbao 1 — Villarreal 2
Pick Results
UNDER 2.5totalLOSS-1.00u
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic Bilbao1.27
Villarreal1.54
14.3Shots16.3
5.1On Target6.0
5.3Corners5.6
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.7%
Over 1.5
78.2%
Over 2.5
28.9%
Over 3.5
22.6%
Under 2.5
71.1%
BTTS
32.3%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
7.6%
1-0
7.4%
Match Context
LALHigh
Athletic Bilbao
15.64
Draw
6.47
Villarreal
1.19
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Villarreal 68.4%
--
Total
2.9
+52.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →