Villarreal vs Rayo Vallecano prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Rayo Vallecano 2.17 - Villarreal 1.67. Rayo Vallecano is favored with a 48.4% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.8..
Rayo Vallecano
2.17
Projected Goals
VS
3.8 total
Villarreal
1.67
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Rayo VallecanoDrawVillarreal
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 65.1% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Villarreal
0.91.72.4
Rayo Vallecano
1.42.22.9
Projected
Rayo Vallecano 2.17 — Villarreal 1.67
Actual
Rayo Vallecano 2 — Villarreal 0
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano2.13
Villarreal1.65
23.2Shots18.3
8.6On Target6.7
6.6Corners6.0
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
98.5%
Over 1.5
90.4%
Over 2.5
55.9%
Over 3.5
53.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
BTTS
52.8%
Most Likely Scores
2-1
8.4%
1-1
7.9%
2-2
7.4%
1-2
6.7%
3-1
6.2%
Match Context
LALMedium
Rayo Vallecano
2.03
Draw
3.61
Villarreal
3.87
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Rayo Vallecano 48.4%
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Total
3.8
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →