Werder Bremen vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 15,000 game iterations and projects TSG Hoffenheim 1.65 - Werder Bremen 1.48. TSG Hoffenheim is favored with a 39.5% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.1..
TSG Hoffenheim
1.65
Projected Goals
VS
3.1 total
Werder Bremen
1.48
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
TSG HoffenheimDrawWerder Bremen
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.1% (1,051 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
Werder Bremen
0.71.52.3
TSG Hoffenheim
0.91.62.4
Projected
TSG Hoffenheim 1.65 — Werder Bremen 1.48
Actual
TSG Hoffenheim 1 — Werder Bremen 0
Expected Goals (xG)
TSG Hoffenheim0.96
Werder Bremen0.83
22.2Shots23.0
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
95.8%
Over 1.5
82.8%
Over 2.5
48.7%
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 2.5
51.3%
BTTS
68.0%
Match Context
BUNMedium
TSG Hoffenheim
1.16
Draw
7.12
Werder Bremen
20.74
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TSG Hoffenheim 39.5%
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Total
3.1
+10.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 15,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →