West Ham United vs Newcastle United prediction for May 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 5,000 game iterations and projects Newcastle United 2.15 - West Ham United 1.23. Newcastle United is favored with a 76.6% win probability. Expected total goals: 3.4..
Newcastle United
2.15
Projected Goals
VS
3.4 total
West Ham United
1.23
Projected Goals
Match Outcome Probabilities
Newcastle UnitedDrawWest Ham United
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 97.9% (1,062 games)
Projected Goals Range 10th – 90th percentile
West Ham United
0.51.22.0
Newcastle United
1.42.12.9
Projected
Newcastle United 2.15 — West Ham United 1.23
Actual
Newcastle United 3 — West Ham United 1
Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle United2.12
West Ham United1.21
20.8Shots14.8
8.1On Target5.1
6.0Corners5.5
Goal Probabilities
Over 0.5
97.5%
Over 1.5
85.8%
Over 2.5
55.1%
Over 3.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
44.9%
BTTS
50.5%
Most Likely Scores
1-1
11.9%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
8.6%
2-0
8.5%
1-2
6.4%
Match Context
EPLMedium
Newcastle United
1.14
Draw
8.64
West Ham United
20.05
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Newcastle United 76.6%
--
Total
3.4
+49.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets Soccer Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 5,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →