Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raphael Collignon 0 - Adrian Mannarino 0. Raphael Collignon is favored with a 51.3% win probability.
Raphael Collignon
1623
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • ATP
Adrian Mannarino
1486
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Raphael CollignonAdrian Mannarino
Hard
Surface
Geneva
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.2% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Geneva
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Adrian Mannarino
Raphael Collignon
Raphael Collignon leads by 137 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Hard: 63.5%
Adrian Mannarino SPW
64.7%
Above tour avg
Raphael Collignon SPW
62.6%
Below tour avg
● Adrian Mannarino has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Adrian Mannarino ML
+650
Model: 49%
Edge: +35.4%
Raphael Collignon ML
-1100
Model: 51%
Edge: -40.4%
Model Projection
Adrian Mannarino ML +650 · +35.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon holds a commanding 137-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Adrian Mannarino has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raphael Collignon 51.3%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →