Aleksandar Vukic vs Raphael Collignon prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raphael Collignon 0 - Aleksandar Vukic 0. Raphael Collignon is favored with a 56.4% win probability.
Raphael Collignon
1501
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Aleksandar Vukic
1450
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Raphael CollignonAleksandar Vukic
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Aleksandar Vukic
Raphael Collignon
Raphael Collignon leads by 50 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Aleksandar Vukic SPW
58.7%
Below tour avg
Raphael Collignon SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
● Raphael Collignon has a slight serve edge (+1.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Aleksandar Vukic ML
+822
Model: 44%
Edge: +32.8%
Raphael Collignon ML
-1300
Model: 56%
Edge: -36.5%
Model Projection
Aleksandar Vukic ML +822 · +32.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Raphael Collignon has a moderate 50-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Raphael Collignon has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Raphael Collignon 56.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →