Anastasia Potapova vs Katie Boulter prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Katie Boulter 0 - Anastasia Potapova 0. Katie Boulter is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Katie Boulter
1592
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Anastasia Potapova
1660
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Katie BoulterAnastasia Potapova
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Anastasia Potapova
Katie Boulter
Anastasia Potapova leads by 67 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Anastasia Potapova SPW
56.9%
Above tour avg
Katie Boulter SPW
60.5%
Above tour avg
● Katie Boulter has a significant serve advantage (+3.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Anastasia Potapova ML
-401
Model: 48%
Edge: -31.5%
Katie Boulter ML
+337
Model: 51%
Edge: +28.6%
Model Projection
Katie Boulter ML +337 · +28.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Anastasia Potapova has a moderate 67-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Katie Boulter has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Katie Boulter 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →