Anastasia Potapova vs Maya Joint prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Maya Joint 0 - Anastasia Potapova 0. Anastasia Potapova is favored with a 63.4% win probability.
Maya Joint
1506
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Anastasia Potapova
1660
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Maya JointAnastasia Potapova
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.8% (3,912 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Anastasia Potapova
Maya Joint
Anastasia Potapova leads by 154 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Anastasia Potapova SPW
55.0%
Below tour avg
Maya Joint SPW
55.0%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Anastasia Potapova ML
-812
Model: 63%
Edge: -25.6%
Maya Joint ML
+586
Model: 37%
Edge: +22.0%
Model Projection
Maya Joint ML +586 · +22.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Anastasia Potapova holds a commanding 154-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Anastasia Potapova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Anastasia Potapova 63.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →