Anastasia Potapova vs Maya Joint prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Maya Joint 0 - Anastasia Potapova 0. Anastasia Potapova is favored with a 63.4% win probability.
Maya Joint
1506
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Anastasia Potapova
1660
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Maya JointAnastasia Potapova
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Anastasia Potapova
Maya Joint
Anastasia Potapova leads by 154 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Anastasia Potapova SPW
55.0%
Below tour avg
Maya Joint SPW
55.0%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Anastasia Potapova ML
-812
Model: 63%
Edge: -25.6%
Maya Joint ML
+586
Model: 37%
Edge: +22.0%
Model Projection
Maya Joint ML +586 · +22.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Anastasia Potapova holds a commanding 154-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Anastasia Potapova has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Anastasia Potapova 63.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →