Andrey Rublev vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0 - Andrey Rublev 0. Andrey Rublev is favored with a 71.7% win probability.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1498
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrey Rublev
1674
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Camilo Ugo CarabelliAndrey Rublev
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.9% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrey Rublev
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Andrey Rublev leads by 176 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrey Rublev SPW
63.9%
Above tour avg
Camilo Ugo Carabelli SPW
58.7%
Below tour avg
● Andrey Rublev has a significant serve advantage (+5.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrey Rublev ML
-363
Model: 72%
Edge: -6.7%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML
+308
Model: 28%
Edge: +3.8%
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrey Rublev holds a commanding 176-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrey Rublev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Andrey Rublev at 72%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrey Rublev 71.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →