Andrey Rublev vs Ignacio Buse prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ignacio Buse 0 - Andrey Rublev 0. Andrey Rublev is favored with a 63.2% win probability.
Ignacio Buse
1609
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Andrey Rublev
1674
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ignacio BuseAndrey Rublev
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.3% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Andrey Rublev
Ignacio Buse
Andrey Rublev leads by 65 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Andrey Rublev SPW
63.7%
Above tour avg
Ignacio Buse SPW
61.5%
Below tour avg
● Andrey Rublev has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Andrey Rublev ML
-264
Model: 63%
Edge: -9.3%
Ignacio Buse ML
+229
Model: 37%
Edge: +6.4%
Model Projection
Ignacio Buse ML +229 · +6.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Andrey Rublev has a moderate 65-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Andrey Rublev has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Andrey Rublev 63.2%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →