Arthur Fils vs Andrea Pellegrino prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Andrea Pellegrino 0 - Arthur Fils 0. Arthur Fils is favored with a 63.2% win probability.
Andrea Pellegrino
1521
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Arthur Fils
1684
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Andrea PellegrinoArthur Fils
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (1,992 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Arthur Fils
Andrea Pellegrino
Arthur Fils leads by 163 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Arthur Fils SPW
62.4%
Below tour avg
Andrea Pellegrino SPW
59.3%
Below tour avg
● Arthur Fils has a significant serve advantage (+3.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Arthur Fils ML
+112
Model: 63%
Edge: +16.0%
Andrea Pellegrino ML
-115
Model: 37%
Edge: -16.7%
Model Projection
Arthur Fils ML +112 · +16.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Arthur Fils holds a commanding 163-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Arthur Fils has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Arthur Fils 63.2%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →