Joao Fonseca vs Hamad Medjedovic prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hamad Medjedovic 0 - Joao Fonseca 0. Hamad Medjedovic is favored with a 50.2% win probability.
Hamad Medjedovic
1503
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Joao Fonseca
1665
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Hamad MedjedovicJoao Fonseca
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.2% (1,992 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Joao Fonseca
Hamad Medjedovic
Joao Fonseca leads by 161 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Joao Fonseca SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
Hamad Medjedovic SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Joao Fonseca ML
+750
Model: 50%
Edge: +38.0%
Hamad Medjedovic ML
-484
Model: 50%
Edge: -32.7%
Model Projection
Joao Fonseca ML +750 · +38.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Joao Fonseca holds a commanding 161-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Hamad Medjedovic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hamad Medjedovic 50.2%
--
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →