Arthur Gea vs Karen Khachanov prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Karen Khachanov 0 - Arthur Gea 0. Karen Khachanov is favored with a 59.0% win probability.
Karen Khachanov
1631
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Arthur Gea
1547
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Karen KhachanovArthur Gea
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,855 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Arthur Gea
Karen Khachanov
Karen Khachanov leads by 84 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Arthur Gea SPW
58.7%
Below tour avg
Karen Khachanov SPW
59.7%
Below tour avg
● Karen Khachanov has a slight serve edge (+1.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Arthur Gea ML
+359
Model: 41%
Edge: +19.2%
Karen Khachanov ML
-429
Model: 59%
Edge: -22.1%
Model Projection
Arthur Gea ML +359 · +19.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Karen Khachanov has a moderate 84-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Karen Khachanov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Karen Khachanov 59.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →