Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Leolia Jeanjean prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Leolia Jeanjean 0 - Beatriz Haddad Maia 0. Beatriz Haddad Maia is favored with a 77.1% win probability.
Leolia Jeanjean
1546
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Beatriz Haddad Maia
1704
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Leolia JeanjeanBeatriz Haddad Maia
Clay
Surface
WTA Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.6% (1,654 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Beatriz Haddad Maia
Leolia Jeanjean
Beatriz Haddad Maia leads by 158 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Beatriz Haddad Maia SPW
60.5%
Above tour avg
Leolia Jeanjean SPW
51.9%
Below tour avg
● Beatriz Haddad Maia has a significant serve advantage (+8.6%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Beatriz Haddad Maia holds a commanding 158-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Beatriz Haddad Maia has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Beatriz Haddad Maia at 77%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Beatriz Haddad Maia 77.1%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →