Ben Shelton vs Raphael Collignon prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raphael Collignon 0 - Ben Shelton 0. Ben Shelton is favored with a 60.7% win probability.
Raphael Collignon
1501
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Ben Shelton
1675
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Raphael CollignonBen Shelton
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Ben Shelton
Raphael Collignon
Ben Shelton leads by 175 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Ben Shelton SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
Raphael Collignon SPW
59.4%
Below tour avg
● Ben Shelton has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ben Shelton ML
-203
Model: 61%
Edge: -6.3%
Raphael Collignon ML
+182
Model: 39%
Edge: +3.8%
Key Matchup Factors
- Ben Shelton holds a commanding 175-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ben Shelton has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ben Shelton 60.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →