Ben Shelton vs Raphael Collignon prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Raphael Collignon 0 - Ben Shelton 0. Ben Shelton is favored with a 61.3% win probability.
Raphael Collignon
1501
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Ben Shelton
1675
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Raphael CollignonBen Shelton
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Ben Shelton
Raphael Collignon
Ben Shelton leads by 175 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Ben Shelton SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
Raphael Collignon SPW
59.4%
Below tour avg
● Ben Shelton has a slight serve edge (+1.7%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ben Shelton ML
-180
Model: 61%
Edge: -3.0%
Raphael Collignon ML
+162
Model: 39%
Edge: +0.5%
Key Matchup Factors
- Ben Shelton holds a commanding 175-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ben Shelton has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ben Shelton 61.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →