Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista-Agut prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Roberto Bautista-Agut 0 - Brandon Nakashima 0. Roberto Bautista-Agut is favored with a 53.4% win probability.
Roberto Bautista-Agut
1500
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Brandon Nakashima
1500
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Roberto Bautista-AgutBrandon Nakashima
Clay
Surface
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (1,751 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Brandon Nakashima
Roberto Bautista-Agut
Brandon Nakashima leads by 0 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Brandon Nakashima SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Roberto Bautista-Agut SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Brandon Nakashima ML
-180
Model: 47%
Edge: -17.7%
Roberto Bautista-Agut ML
+150
Model: 53%
Edge: +13.4%
Model Projection
Roberto Bautista-Agut ML +150 · +13.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (0-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Roberto Bautista-Agut has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Roberto Bautista-Agut 53.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →