Ignacio Buse vs Lorenzo Sonego prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Lorenzo Sonego 0 - Ignacio Buse 0. Lorenzo Sonego is favored with a 50.9% win probability.
Lorenzo Sonego
1506
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Ignacio Buse
1609
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Lorenzo SonegoIgnacio Buse
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.5% (1,751 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Ignacio Buse
Lorenzo Sonego
Ignacio Buse leads by 103 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Ignacio Buse SPW
60.8%
Below tour avg
Lorenzo Sonego SPW
60.8%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Ignacio Buse ML
-3000
Model: 49%
Edge: -47.7%
Lorenzo Sonego ML
+2200
Model: 51%
Edge: +46.6%
Model Projection
Lorenzo Sonego ML +2200 · +46.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Ignacio Buse holds a commanding 103-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Lorenzo Sonego has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lorenzo Sonego 50.9%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →