Brandon Nakashima vs Roberto Bautista Agut prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Roberto Bautista Agut 0 - Brandon Nakashima 0. Brandon Nakashima is favored with a 69.5% win probability.
Roberto Bautista Agut
1485
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Brandon Nakashima
1556
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Roberto Bautista AgutBrandon Nakashima
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 68.3% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Brandon Nakashima
Roberto Bautista Agut
Brandon Nakashima leads by 71 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Brandon Nakashima SPW
62.9%
Below tour avg
Roberto Bautista Agut SPW
58.6%
Below tour avg
● Brandon Nakashima has a significant serve advantage (+4.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Brandon Nakashima ML
-348
Model: 70%
Edge: -8.2%
Roberto Bautista Agut ML
+296
Model: 30%
Edge: +5.3%
Model Projection
Roberto Bautista Agut ML +296 · +5.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Brandon Nakashima has a moderate 71-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Brandon Nakashima has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Brandon Nakashima at 70%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Brandon Nakashima 69.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →