Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Emilio Nava prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Emilio Nava 0 - Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0. Emilio Nava is favored with a 60.7% win probability.
Emilio Nava
1497
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1498
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Emilio NavaCamilo Ugo Carabelli
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Emilio Nava
Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads by 1 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
Emilio Nava SPW
63.8%
Above tour avg
● Emilio Nava has a significant serve advantage (+4.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML
-106
Model: 39%
Edge: -12.2%
Emilio Nava ML
-106
Model: 61%
Edge: +9.3%
Model Projection
Emilio Nava ML -106 · +9.3% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (1-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Emilio Nava has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Emilio Nava 60.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →