Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Emilio Nava prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Emilio Nava 0 - Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0. Emilio Nava is favored with a 61.2% win probability.
Emilio Nava
1497
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
1498
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Emilio NavaCamilo Ugo Carabelli
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Emilio Nava
Camilo Ugo Carabelli leads by 1 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Camilo Ugo Carabelli SPW
59.9%
Below tour avg
Emilio Nava SPW
63.8%
Above tour avg
● Emilio Nava has a significant serve advantage (+4.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Camilo Ugo Carabelli ML
-101
Model: 39%
Edge: -11.5%
Emilio Nava ML
-112
Model: 61%
Edge: +8.4%
Model Projection
Emilio Nava ML -112 · +8.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (1-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Emilio Nava has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Emilio Nava 61.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →