Daniel Altmaier vs Felix Auger-Aliassime prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Felix Auger-Aliassime 0 - Daniel Altmaier 0. Felix Auger-Aliassime is favored with a 60.4% win probability.
Felix Auger-Aliassime
1650
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Daniel Altmaier
1506
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Felix Auger-AliassimeDaniel Altmaier
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,855 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Daniel Altmaier
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Felix Auger-Aliassime leads by 144 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Daniel Altmaier SPW
60.1%
Below tour avg
Felix Auger-Aliassime SPW
61.1%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Daniel Altmaier ML
+292
Model: 40%
Edge: +14.1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime ML
-343
Model: 60%
Edge: -17.1%
Model Projection
Daniel Altmaier ML +292 · +14.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 144-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Felix Auger-Aliassime has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Auger-Aliassime 60.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →