Denis Shapovalov vs Jaime Faria prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jaime Faria 0 - Denis Shapovalov 0. Denis Shapovalov is favored with a 65.6% win probability.
Jaime Faria
1420
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Denis Shapovalov
1533
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jaime FariaDenis Shapovalov
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.3% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Denis Shapovalov
Jaime Faria
Denis Shapovalov leads by 113 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Denis Shapovalov SPW
63.4%
Below tour avg
Jaime Faria SPW
59.2%
Below tour avg
● Denis Shapovalov has a significant serve advantage (+4.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Denis Shapovalov ML
+125
Model: 66%
Edge: +21.1%
Jaime Faria ML
-143
Model: 34%
Edge: -24.4%
Model Projection
Denis Shapovalov ML +125 · +21.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Denis Shapovalov holds a commanding 113-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Denis Shapovalov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Denis Shapovalov at 66%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Denis Shapovalov 65.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →