Denis Shapovalov vs Jaime Faria prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jaime Faria 0 - Denis Shapovalov 0. Denis Shapovalov is favored with a 65.4% win probability.
Jaime Faria
1420
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Denis Shapovalov
1533
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jaime FariaDenis Shapovalov
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.7% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Denis Shapovalov
Jaime Faria
Denis Shapovalov leads by 113 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Denis Shapovalov SPW
63.4%
Below tour avg
Jaime Faria SPW
59.2%
Below tour avg
● Denis Shapovalov has a significant serve advantage (+4.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Denis Shapovalov ML
+137
Model: 65%
Edge: +23.2%
Jaime Faria ML
-154
Model: 35%
Edge: -26.0%
Model Projection
Denis Shapovalov ML +137 · +23.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Denis Shapovalov holds a commanding 113-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Denis Shapovalov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Denis Shapovalov at 65%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Denis Shapovalov 65.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →