Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Emma Raducanu 0 - Diane Parry 0. Emma Raducanu is favored with a 61.6% win probability.
Emma Raducanu
1714
Hard Elo
VS
Hard • WTA
Diane Parry
1613
Hard Elo
Match Win Probability
Emma RaducanuDiane Parry
Hard
Surface
Internationaux de Strasbourg
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (2,335 games)
Match Context
Tournament
Internationaux de Strasbourg
Surface
Hard
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Hard)
Diane Parry
Emma Raducanu
Emma Raducanu leads by 101 Elo points on Hard
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Hard: 56.5%
Diane Parry SPW
57.0%
Above tour avg
Emma Raducanu SPW
59.2%
Above tour avg
● Emma Raducanu has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Diane Parry ML
+175
Model: 38%
Edge: +2.1%
Emma Raducanu ML
-215
Model: 62%
Edge: -6.7%
Key Matchup Factors
- Emma Raducanu holds a commanding 101-point Elo advantage on Hard
- Hard court provides a neutral surface — favors all-court players
- Emma Raducanu has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Emma Raducanu 61.6%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →