Elisabetta Cocciaretto vs Alina Korneeva prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alina Korneeva 0 - Elisabetta Cocciaretto 0. Elisabetta Cocciaretto is favored with a 53.0% win probability.
Alina Korneeva
1549
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
1602
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Alina KorneevaElisabetta Cocciaretto
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Alina Korneeva
Elisabetta Cocciaretto leads by 54 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Elisabetta Cocciaretto SPW
55.4%
Below tour avg
Alina Korneeva SPW
55.6%
Below tour avg
● Serve statistics are nearly identical — expect a close match
Market Odds & Model Edge
Elisabetta Cocciaretto ML
-197
Model: 53%
Edge: -13.3%
Alina Korneeva ML
+173
Model: 47%
Edge: +10.4%
Model Projection
Alina Korneeva ML +173 · +10.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Elisabetta Cocciaretto has a moderate 54-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alina Korneeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Elisabetta Cocciaretto 53.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →