Felix Gill vs Aziz Dougaz prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aziz Dougaz 0 - Felix Gill 0. Felix Gill is favored with a 64.7% win probability.
Aziz Dougaz
1396
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Felix Gill
1596
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Aziz DougazFelix Gill
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Felix Gill
Aziz Dougaz
Felix Gill leads by 200 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Felix Gill SPW
60.7%
Below tour avg
Aziz Dougaz SPW
58.4%
Below tour avg
● Felix Gill has a slight serve edge (+2.2%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Felix Gill ML
-326
Model: 65%
Edge: -11.8%
Aziz Dougaz ML
+265
Model: 35%
Edge: +7.9%
Model Projection
Aziz Dougaz ML +265 · +7.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Felix Gill holds a commanding 200-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Felix Gill has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Felix Gill 64.7%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →