Fiona Ferro vs Mirra Andreeva prediction for May 23, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mirra Andreeva 0 - Fiona Ferro 0. Mirra Andreeva is favored with a 69.8% win probability.
Mirra Andreeva
1811
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Fiona Ferro
1475
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Mirra AndreevaFiona Ferro
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 69.7% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Fiona Ferro
Mirra Andreeva
Mirra Andreeva leads by 336 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Fiona Ferro SPW
52.1%
Below tour avg
Mirra Andreeva SPW
57.8%
Above tour avg
● Mirra Andreeva has a significant serve advantage (+5.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Fiona Ferro ML
+1281
Model: 30%
Edge: +22.9%
Mirra Andreeva ML
-2342
Model: 70%
Edge: -26.1%
Model Projection
Fiona Ferro ML +1281 · +22.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Mirra Andreeva holds a commanding 336-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mirra Andreeva has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Mirra Andreeva at 70%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mirra Andreeva 69.8%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →