Francesco Maestrelli vs Roberto Bautista Agut prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Roberto Bautista Agut 0 - Francesco Maestrelli 0. Francesco Maestrelli is favored with a 59.6% win probability.
Roberto Bautista Agut
1485
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Francesco Maestrelli
1529
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Roberto Bautista AgutFrancesco Maestrelli
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (1,751 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Francesco Maestrelli
Roberto Bautista Agut
Francesco Maestrelli leads by 44 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Francesco Maestrelli SPW
60.4%
Below tour avg
Roberto Bautista Agut SPW
58.3%
Below tour avg
● Francesco Maestrelli has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francesco Maestrelli ML
+7200
Model: 60%
Edge: +58.2%
Roberto Bautista Agut ML
-1400
Model: 40%
Edge: -52.9%
Model Projection
Francesco Maestrelli ML +7200 · +58.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Francesco Maestrelli has a moderate 44-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Francesco Maestrelli has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Francesco Maestrelli 59.6%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →