Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Ethan Quinn prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ethan Quinn 0 - Pablo Llamas Ruiz 0. Ethan Quinn is favored with a 58.5% win probability.
Ethan Quinn
1495
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
1486
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ethan QuinnPablo Llamas Ruiz
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (1,751 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Ethan Quinn
Ethan Quinn leads by 9 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Pablo Llamas Ruiz SPW
59.4%
Below tour avg
Ethan Quinn SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Ethan Quinn has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML
+353
Model: 42%
Edge: +19.4%
Ethan Quinn ML
-320
Model: 58%
Edge: -17.7%
Model Projection
Pablo Llamas Ruiz ML +353 · +19.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (9-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ethan Quinn has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ethan Quinn 58.5%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →