Francisco Comesana vs Ethan Quinn prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ethan Quinn 0 - Francisco Comesana 0. Ethan Quinn is favored with a 50.2% win probability.
Ethan Quinn
1495
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Francisco Comesana
1527
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ethan QuinnFrancisco Comesana
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.9% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Francisco Comesana
Ethan Quinn
Francisco Comesana leads by 32 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Francisco Comesana SPW
60.5%
Below tour avg
Ethan Quinn SPW
61.9%
Below tour avg
● Ethan Quinn has a slight serve edge (+1.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Francisco Comesana ML
-133
Model: 50%
Edge: -7.3%
Ethan Quinn ML
+118
Model: 50%
Edge: +4.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (32-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Ethan Quinn has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Ethan Quinn 50.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →