Gianluca Cadenasso vs Thiago Agustin Tirante prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thiago Agustin Tirante 0 - Gianluca Cadenasso 0. Thiago Agustin Tirante is favored with a 53.6% win probability.
Thiago Agustin Tirante
1504
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Gianluca Cadenasso
1487
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Thiago Agustin TiranteGianluca Cadenasso
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.3% (1,751 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Gianluca Cadenasso
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Thiago Agustin Tirante leads by 17 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Gianluca Cadenasso SPW
59.3%
Below tour avg
Thiago Agustin Tirante SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
● Thiago Agustin Tirante has a slight serve edge (+1.0%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Gianluca Cadenasso ML
-1600
Model: 46%
Edge: -47.7%
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML
+1000
Model: 54%
Edge: +44.5%
Model Projection
Thiago Agustin Tirante ML +1000 · +44.5% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (17-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Thiago Agustin Tirante has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Thiago Agustin Tirante 53.6%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →