Iga Swiatek vs Sara Bejlek prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Sara Bejlek 0 - Iga Swiatek 0. Iga Swiatek is favored with a 84.3% win probability.
Sara Bejlek
1611
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Iga Swiatek
2042
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Sara BejlekIga Swiatek
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 78.3% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Iga Swiatek
Sara Bejlek
Iga Swiatek leads by 431 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Iga Swiatek SPW
64.3%
Above tour avg
Sara Bejlek SPW
49.8%
Below tour avg
● Iga Swiatek has a significant serve advantage (+14.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Iga Swiatek ML
-2875
Model: 84%
Edge: -12.3%
Sara Bejlek ML
+1583
Model: 16%
Edge: +9.8%
Model Projection
Sara Bejlek ML +1583 · +9.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Iga Swiatek holds a commanding 431-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Iga Swiatek has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Iga Swiatek at 84%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Iga Swiatek 84.3%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →