Jacob Fearnley vs Aleksandar Kovacevic prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Aleksandar Kovacevic 0 - Jacob Fearnley 0. Jacob Fearnley is favored with a 50.4% win probability.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
1406
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jacob Fearnley
1469
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Aleksandar KovacevicJacob Fearnley
Clay
Surface
ATP Italian Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.5% (1,570 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Italian Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jacob Fearnley
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Jacob Fearnley leads by 62 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jacob Fearnley SPW
70.1%
Above tour avg
Aleksandar Kovacevic SPW
71.4%
Above tour avg
● Aleksandar Kovacevic has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jacob Fearnley ML
+160
Model: 50%
Edge: +12.0%
Aleksandar Kovacevic ML
-220
Model: 50%
Edge: -19.2%
Model Projection
Jacob Fearnley ML +160 · +12.0% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jacob Fearnley has a moderate 62-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Aleksandar Kovacevic has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jacob Fearnley 50.4%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →