Jakub Mensik vs Ignacio Buse prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Ignacio Buse 0 - Jakub Mensik 0. Jakub Mensik is favored with a 59.1% win probability.
Ignacio Buse
1609
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jakub Mensik
1656
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Ignacio BuseJakub Mensik
Clay
Surface
ATP Hamburg Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.6% (2,758 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP Hamburg Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jakub Mensik
Ignacio Buse
Jakub Mensik leads by 47 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jakub Mensik SPW
64.9%
Above tour avg
Ignacio Buse SPW
62.4%
Below tour avg
● Jakub Mensik has a slight serve edge (+2.5%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jakub Mensik ML
+3297
Model: 59%
Edge: +56.2%
Ignacio Buse ML
-9900
Model: 41%
Edge: -58.1%
Model Projection
Jakub Mensik ML +3297 · +56.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jakub Mensik has a moderate 47-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jakub Mensik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jakub Mensik 59.1%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →