Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Alexander Bublik 0 - Jan-Lennard Struff 0. Alexander Bublik is favored with a 76.9% win probability.
Alexander Bublik
1833
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jan-Lennard Struff
1452
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Alexander BublikJan-Lennard Struff
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.0% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jan-Lennard Struff
Alexander Bublik
Alexander Bublik leads by 380 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jan-Lennard Struff SPW
60.3%
Below tour avg
Alexander Bublik SPW
68.1%
Above tour avg
● Alexander Bublik has a significant serve advantage (+7.9%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jan-Lennard Struff ML
+306
Model: 23%
Edge: -1.5%
Alexander Bublik ML
-361
Model: 77%
Edge: -1.4%
Key Matchup Factors
- Alexander Bublik holds a commanding 380-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Alexander Bublik has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Alexander Bublik at 77%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Alexander Bublik 76.9%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →