Jenson Brooksby vs Mariano Navone prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Mariano Navone 0 - Jenson Brooksby 0. Jenson Brooksby is favored with a 53.1% win probability.
Mariano Navone
1467
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jenson Brooksby
1635
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Mariano NavoneJenson Brooksby
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.1% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jenson Brooksby
Mariano Navone
Jenson Brooksby leads by 168 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jenson Brooksby SPW
61.2%
Below tour avg
Mariano Navone SPW
59.8%
Below tour avg
● Jenson Brooksby has a slight serve edge (+1.4%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jenson Brooksby ML
+569
Model: 53%
Edge: +38.1%
Mariano Navone ML
-751
Model: 47%
Edge: -41.3%
Model Projection
Jenson Brooksby ML +569 · +38.1% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jenson Brooksby holds a commanding 168-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jenson Brooksby has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jenson Brooksby 53.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →