Jesper De Jong vs Stan Wawrinka prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Stan Wawrinka 0 - Jesper De Jong 0. Jesper De Jong is favored with a 70.8% win probability.
Stan Wawrinka
1401
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jesper De Jong
1591
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Stan WawrinkaJesper De Jong
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 67.6% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jesper De Jong
Stan Wawrinka
Jesper De Jong leads by 190 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jesper De Jong SPW
63.8%
Above tour avg
Stan Wawrinka SPW
60.1%
Below tour avg
● Jesper De Jong has a significant serve advantage (+3.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jesper De Jong ML
-163
Model: 71%
Edge: +8.8%
Stan Wawrinka ML
+149
Model: 29%
Edge: -11.0%
Model Projection
Jesper De Jong ML -163 · +8.8% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jesper De Jong holds a commanding 190-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jesper De Jong has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jesper De Jong at 71%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jesper De Jong 70.8%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →