Jessica Pegula vs Kimberly Birrell prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kimberly Birrell 0 - Jessica Pegula 0. Jessica Pegula is favored with a 67.0% win probability.
Kimberly Birrell
1531
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Jessica Pegula
1793
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Kimberly BirrellJessica Pegula
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jessica Pegula
Kimberly Birrell
Jessica Pegula leads by 262 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Jessica Pegula SPW
57.9%
Above tour avg
Kimberly Birrell SPW
53.9%
Below tour avg
● Jessica Pegula has a significant serve advantage (+4.1%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jessica Pegula ML
-3718
Model: 67%
Edge: -30.3%
Kimberly Birrell ML
+1785
Model: 33%
Edge: +27.6%
Model Projection
Kimberly Birrell ML +1785 · +27.6% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jessica Pegula holds a commanding 262-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Jessica Pegula has the stronger serve profile on this surface
- Heavy favorite (Jessica Pegula at 67%) — ML value may be limited; consider live or set markets
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jessica Pegula 67.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →