Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Carreno Busta 0 - Jiri Lehecka 0. Jiri Lehecka is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Pablo Carreno Busta
1460
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jiri Lehecka
1610
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Carreno BustaJiri Lehecka
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (3,912 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jiri Lehecka
Pablo Carreno Busta
Jiri Lehecka leads by 150 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jiri Lehecka SPW
61.3%
Below tour avg
Pablo Carreno Busta SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
● Pablo Carreno Busta has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jiri Lehecka ML
-365
Model: 51%
Edge: -27.1%
Pablo Carreno Busta ML
+310
Model: 49%
Edge: +24.2%
Model Projection
Pablo Carreno Busta ML +310 · +24.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jiri Lehecka holds a commanding 150-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Pablo Carreno Busta has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jiri Lehecka 51.4%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →