Jiri Lehecka vs Pablo Carreno Busta prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Pablo Carreno Busta 0 - Jiri Lehecka 0. Jiri Lehecka is favored with a 51.4% win probability.
Pablo Carreno Busta
1460
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Jiri Lehecka
1610
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Pablo Carreno BustaJiri Lehecka
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.0% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Jiri Lehecka
Pablo Carreno Busta
Jiri Lehecka leads by 150 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Jiri Lehecka SPW
61.3%
Below tour avg
Pablo Carreno Busta SPW
63.1%
Below tour avg
● Pablo Carreno Busta has a slight serve edge (+1.8%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Jiri Lehecka ML
-365
Model: 51%
Edge: -27.1%
Pablo Carreno Busta ML
+310
Model: 49%
Edge: +24.2%
Model Projection
Pablo Carreno Busta ML +310 · +24.2% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Jiri Lehecka holds a commanding 150-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Pablo Carreno Busta has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jiri Lehecka 51.4%
--
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →