Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jacob Fearnley prediction for May 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Jacob Fearnley 0 - Juan Manuel Cerundolo 0. Juan Manuel Cerundolo is favored with a 62.5% win probability.
Jacob Fearnley
1469
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
1525
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Jacob FearnleyJuan Manuel Cerundolo
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Jacob Fearnley
Juan Manuel Cerundolo leads by 56 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo SPW
60.6%
Below tour avg
Jacob Fearnley SPW
59.0%
Below tour avg
● Juan Manuel Cerundolo has a slight serve edge (+1.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Juan Manuel Cerundolo ML
-372
Model: 62%
Edge: -16.3%
Jacob Fearnley ML
+315
Model: 38%
Edge: +13.4%
Model Projection
Jacob Fearnley ML +315 · +13.4% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo has a moderate 56-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Juan Manuel Cerundolo 62.5%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →