Katie Volynets vs Marta Kostyuk prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Marta Kostyuk 0 - Katie Volynets 0. Marta Kostyuk is favored with a 60.2% win probability.
Marta Kostyuk
1684
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Katie Volynets
1521
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Marta KostyukKatie Volynets
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.5% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Katie Volynets
Marta Kostyuk
Marta Kostyuk leads by 163 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Katie Volynets SPW
53.7%
Below tour avg
Marta Kostyuk SPW
55.3%
Below tour avg
● Marta Kostyuk has a slight serve edge (+1.6%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Katie Volynets ML
+532
Model: 40%
Edge: +23.9%
Marta Kostyuk ML
-666
Model: 60%
Edge: -26.7%
Model Projection
Katie Volynets ML +532 · +23.9% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Marta Kostyuk holds a commanding 163-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Marta Kostyuk has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Marta Kostyuk 60.2%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →