Marco Trungelliti vs Karen Khachanov prediction for May 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Karen Khachanov 0 - Marco Trungelliti 0. Karen Khachanov is favored with a 62.0% win probability.
Karen Khachanov
1631
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Marco Trungelliti
1432
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Karen KhachanovMarco Trungelliti
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.8% (3,925 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Marco Trungelliti
Karen Khachanov
Karen Khachanov leads by 200 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Marco Trungelliti SPW
58.2%
Below tour avg
Karen Khachanov SPW
59.5%
Below tour avg
● Karen Khachanov has a slight serve edge (+1.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Marco Trungelliti ML
+295
Model: 38%
Edge: +12.7%
Karen Khachanov ML
-337
Model: 62%
Edge: -15.1%
Model Projection
Marco Trungelliti ML +295 · +12.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Karen Khachanov holds a commanding 200-point Elo advantage on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Karen Khachanov has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Karen Khachanov 62.0%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →