Maria Lourdes Carle vs Rebeka Masarova prediction for May 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rebeka Masarova 0 - Maria Lourdes Carle 0. Maria Lourdes Carle is favored with a 59.7% win probability.
Rebeka Masarova
1506
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • WTA
Maria Lourdes Carle
1562
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Rebeka MasarovaMaria Lourdes Carle
Clay
Surface
WTA French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.0% (2,567 games)
Match Context
Tournament
WTA French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 3 · WTA
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Maria Lourdes Carle
Rebeka Masarova
Maria Lourdes Carle leads by 56 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. WTA average on Clay: 56.5%
Maria Lourdes Carle SPW
53.8%
Below tour avg
Rebeka Masarova SPW
51.7%
Below tour avg
● Maria Lourdes Carle has a slight serve edge (+2.1%)
Key Matchup Factors
- Maria Lourdes Carle has a moderate 56-point Elo edge on Clay
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Maria Lourdes Carle has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · WTA
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Maria Lourdes Carle 59.7%
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More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →