Mattia Bellucci vs Quentin Halys prediction for May 24, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Quentin Halys 0 - Mattia Bellucci 0. Mattia Bellucci is favored with a 62.1% win probability.
Quentin Halys
1461
Clay Elo
VS
Clay • ATP
Mattia Bellucci
1465
Clay Elo
Match Win Probability
Quentin HalysMattia Bellucci
Clay
Surface
ATP French Open
Tournament
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.2% (6,716 games)
Match Context
Tournament
ATP French Open
Surface
Clay
Format
Best of 5 · ATP
Surface Elo Ratings (Clay)
Mattia Bellucci
Quentin Halys
Mattia Bellucci leads by 5 Elo points on Clay
Serve & Return Analysis
Serve Points Won % (SPW) is the single most predictive metric in tennis. ATP average on Clay: 63.5%
Mattia Bellucci SPW
65.7%
Above tour avg
Quentin Halys SPW
61.4%
Below tour avg
● Mattia Bellucci has a significant serve advantage (+4.3%)
Market Odds & Model Edge
Mattia Bellucci ML
+120
Model: 62%
Edge: +16.7%
Quentin Halys ML
-135
Model: 38%
Edge: -19.6%
Model Projection
Mattia Bellucci ML +120 · +16.7% edge
Key Matchup Factors
- Players are closely matched (5-point Elo gap)
- Clay surface reduces serve dominance — expect more breaks of serve and longer rallies
- Mattia Bellucci has the stronger serve profile on this surface
Surface Elo v1.0 · Barnett-Clarke serve model · 10,000 simulations · ATP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Mattia Bellucci 62.1%
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets ATP/WTA Tennis Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →